Unified Rate Cut Expectations Amid Ongoing Crypto Volatility in October

Key Macro Insights for October 14-20, 2023

According to macro researcher Adam from Greeks.live, the week of October 14-20 is set to be pivotal for both traditional and crypto markets. With key events scheduled, market fluctuations are anticipated, particularly with the looming U.S. election influencing investor sentiment.

Market Trends and Expectations

The Federal Reserve is expected to make a rate cut, which, although anticipated, limits immediate impacts. Ongoing developments related to the election are likely to play a significant role in driving market sentiment.

Current polling suggests a close race, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a 2% lead in approval over her competitors. In contrast, betting market Polymarket indicates that former President Donald Trump has a 10% higher approval rating, adding another layer of complexity to the election narrative.

Major Events from October 14-20

Here's a list of critical events scheduled for this week that could impact market trends:

• Monday, Oct. 14: Neel Kashkari, a voting member of the FOMC in 2026 and Minneapolis Fed President, participates in a panel discussion (21:00 ET).
• Tuesday, Oct. 15: Fed Governor Christopher Waller discusses the economic outlook (03:00 ET). San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will also speak at NYU’s Stern School of Business (23:30 ET).
• Wednesday, Oct. 16: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler delivers a speech (01:00 ET). The UK will release its September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 14:00 ET.
• Thursday, Oct. 17: The Eurozone will release its September CPI (17:00 ET), followed by the ECB's interest rate decision (20:15 ET). The U.S. will also release initial jobless claims and September retail sales data (20:30 ET), while ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference (20:45 ET).
• Friday, Oct. 18: Neel Kashkari delivers another speech (22:00 ET).

Crypto Market Outlook

The outlook for the crypto market remains tumultuous throughout the month of October. With macroeconomic updates and election-related uncertainty at the forefront, volatility is expected to increase significantly.

Currently, Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) stands at a medium level; however, substantial fluctuations in the price are expected both before and after the U.S. election. This unpredictability highlights the need for investors to remain vigilant.

Conclusion

This week's events are crucial for shaping market dynamics, and close attention should be paid to how they unfold in tandem with ongoing election developments.

Stay updated and prepare for potential market shifts as we approach the U.S. election while navigating through the complexities of the financial landscape.