Kalshi Expands Global Election Betting Markets with New Contracts

Kalshi Expands Predictions Market with Global Election Betting Contracts

In a significant development for the political betting landscape, Kalshi, a prediction marketplace, has launched contracts allowing users to wager on election outcomes outside the United States. This expansion is timely, coinciding with an increasing popularity of political wagers as the November US presidential election approaches.

New Contracts for International Elections

According to regulatory filings with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi's new offerings include contracts focused on national races in countries such as Australia and Ecuador. Furthermore, the platform has also introduced betting markets for the 2025 elections in Canada and Ireland. This addition enriches Kalshi's current selection, which already comprises multiple contracts related to the upcoming US federal elections.

US Presidential Election Betting Volume

As of October 23, Kalshi's flagship market query, "Who will win the Presidential election?" has garnered approximately $52 million in total betting volume since its launch on October 7. This is indicative of the growing engagement of bettors in the election process and the platform's influence in tracking political outcomes.

New Contracts and Market Potential

On October 21, Kalshi recently introduced more than a dozen new contracts related to political events. This expansion follows the platform's successful listing of event contracts for US election outcomes earlier this month after a groundbreaking court ruling in September. This pivotal victory marks the first instance of an election prediction market being permitted to operate in the US, potentially paving the way for other platforms, including Web3 based platforms like Polymarket.

Global Wagering Trends for Elections

Polymarket, another prominent player in this field, reported that nearly $2.3 billion has been wagered on the outcome of the upcoming November US presidential election as of October 23. Notably, in 2024 more than 75 countries globally, including significant economies in the European Union, India, and Russia, are slated to hold elections, based on data from Maps Interlude.

Concerns and Insights on Election Integrity

Despite the expansion of election prediction markets, the CFTC has raised concerns regarding their potential impact on the integrity of elections. However, various industry analysts, including Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, argue that these markets can often capture public sentiment with greater accuracy than traditional polling methods. In an August letter to the CFTC, Crane asserted that event contract markets represent a significant public benefit, and there is no substantial evidence pointing to manipulation or misuse.

Conclusion

The expansion of Kalshi's betting contracts for international elections highlights a growing trend towards political prediction markets. As more countries prepare for elections, the ability to bet on outcomes offers a unique perspective on public sentiment and electoral dynamics. The ongoing discussions surrounding regulation and integrity underscore the need for careful oversight as these markets evolve.