Bitcoin Poised For Positive Seasonality In Q4: Demand Crucial For Price Growth

Bitcoin's Path to $100,000: Demand and Seasonal Trends

According to recent analysis by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin may be entering a favorable seasonal period, but a notable increase in demand is essential for its price to soar to $100,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Previous trends indicate that Bitcoin has historically performed well in October, especially during bullish cycles and halving years.

Historical Performance in Halving Years

Looking back at past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020:

• 2012: Price increase of 9%
• 2016: Price increase of 59%
• 2020: Price increase of a staggering 171%

CryptoQuant analysts report that Bitcoin's performance up to September 2023 has mirrored these historic patterns seen in 2016 and 2020.

Market Cycle Analysis: Bull or Bear?

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin was in a BULL phase from March until August 2023. However, the market has shifted into a BEAR phase for the three weeks between August and September, now positioned uncertainly between these phases as it heads into Q4.

In comparison, Bitcoin began the fourth quarter of 2020 in a robust bull phase. This year's entry is notably weaker, emphasizing the need for a surge in demand to achieve significant price increases.

Apparent Demand Trends

Analysis shows that Bitcoin’s apparent demand growth has stagnated since July, fluctuating between -23,000 and +69,000 BTC monthly. This is starkly contrasted by April's demand growth, which peaked at 496,000 BTC when prices hovered around $70,000.

The ongoing demand from US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is deemed crucial for potential price escalations. A shift from net selling of 5,000 BTC to net buying of 7,000 BTC between September 2 and 30 signifies a positive change in institutional sentiment.

Institutional Demand and Net Inflows

Data from SoSoValue illustrates that spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed an impressive $1.8 billion in net inflows between September 13 and 30, hinting at a burgeoning institutional interest anticipating rising BTC prices in the final quarter.

Furthermore, London-based asset manager CoinShares highlighted that positive sentiment following the approval of options for US-based investment products led to over $1 billion in inflows into Bitcoin investment products between September 23 and 27.

Forecast for Q4 2024

Based on these insights, CryptoQuant projects that if demand continues its upward trajectory, Bitcoin could potentially target a price range between $85,000 and $100,000 by December's end.

Market Influencers to Watch

Market participants should remain vigilant, monitoring several influencing factors such as:

• Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
• The health of the US job market
• Future actions by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, following the significant 50 basis point cut on September 18.

By staying updated on these trends and factors, investors can better navigate the volatile crypto landscape.