Manchester United: Analyzing Erik ten Hag's Underachieving Premier League Campaign

Is Manchester United Finally Showing Signs of Improvement?

The debate surrounding Manchester United's current performance has taken center stage once again, with the team sitting uncomfortably in the bottom half of the Premier League table. The ongoing scrutiny raises the question: is there any indication of improvement under Erik ten Hag?

Recent Struggles and Team Performance

During the recent Europa League match against Twente, Ten Hag expressed disappointment, stating that his squad lacked '99 percent effort'. Following five league games, United finds itself in 11th place, but a deeper look into their statistics suggests a positive trend compared to last season's performance.

Key Improvements in Attack

• Despite their current standing, United ranks in the top five for various attacking metrics this season.
• They have significantly reduced the number of shots faced, dropping from 667 last season to nearly half that average this term.
• The team has also made a league-leading 59 interceptions, showcasing an improved defensive effort.

Expected Goals Analysis

Utilizing the expected goals (xG) metric introduces a different narrative; United appears to be underperforming relative to their actual expected position in the league. According to Sky Sports' expected Premier League table, they would presently rank fifth, just three points away from city rivals Manchester City.

From Overachievers to Underachievers

Last season, though United finished eighth, their underlying xG statistics pegged them at 14th position, indicating they had overachieved despite their low league position. This year, however, they are the league's joint-biggest underachievers, tied with Southampton, having scored approximately five goals less than their xG suggests.

Missed Opportunities: Key Players at Fault

Key players have contributed to the missed opportunities causing this disparity. Bruno Fernandes leads with an xG of 1.86 but has yet to score, while Joshua Zirkee and Alejandro Garnacho have both registered far lower actual scores than anticipated despite generating high-quality chances.

Inconsistency in Scoring

Marcus Rashford's performance adds layers to this inconsistency; after scoring his first goal since March against Southampton, he netted twice in a strong 7-0 win over Barnsley. Yet, he did not find the net against Twente after starting from the bench, sparking discussions over his effectiveness in the No 9 position.

Defensive Partnerships and Squad Utilization

Defensively, instability is evident, with no center-back partnership establishing a strong foundation—none have surpassed 500 minutes together since last season began. The most frequent pairing has been Jonny Evans and Raphael Varane, the latter recently retiring.

Support for Ten Hag

As Ten Hag embarks on his third season, he enjoys financial backing from INEOS, investing over £616.8 million in player acquisitions, only surpassed by Chelsea. The current squad's combined cost of approximately £888 million reflects high expectations and significant support.

Upcoming Challenges

In the coming weeks, United will face critical fixtures, including a match against Tottenham, followed by a Europa League tie against Porto and a challenging game against Aston Villa. These matches will be crucial for Ten Hag to convert underlying metrics into meaningful results.

Conclusion: The Make-or-Break Moment

As Erik ten Hag faces yet another pivotal juncture at Manchester United, fans and analysts alike are hoping for the team's potential to translate into tangible success. Will they be able to convert chances into goals and improve their league standing? Only time will tell, but the signs of progress are certainly there.